Experts from Deutsche Bank presented the study forecast the death of traditional banks as a result of the development of Internet technology.
Thus, there are statistical and mathematical prediction of Bill Gates’ confirmation that he did back in the nineties : «Banks – no, banking – yes» ( banks – no banking – of course).
According to estimations of Deutsche Bank just a few years will need to ensure that Internet companies first robbed banks payments markets , and then – and lending markets , and deposits .
The beginning of this fascinating process we see today. For example, there is no need to buy a service from the bank to pay for it through cellular phones. You can simply transfer money from their account to the account of another person.
Many Russians who prefer not to waste money on providing an enviable life with bankers Mercedes and caviar, long mastered the use of various electronic wallets. Of course, our banks are trying to prevent the arrival of a powerful Russian foreign payment systems , or to buy their wallets , such as Yandex . But it can only slightly delay the inevitable – the arrival of the progress they were unable to prevent the development of horse breeders once iron is expensive and motorization.
Also, we have learned to buy e-tickets from the so -called ” budget companies ” – that is, those who save on the construction of representations and offices and maintenance employees crowds in uniform. However, in Russia such companies do not work , our economy is still resisting the monopoly of civilization. But progress leash will , as always happens in history.
Bankers are worried . And because Deutsche Bank did not spare money to study scenarios of death ” fat cats “, as the world’s richest – American investor Warren Buffett and Bill Gates a computer .
And here the other day in Frankfurt Deutsche Bank analysts were forced to admit : in the future people will not need any cash or credit cards, and will have enough phone to pay for any purchases .
This is a technological revolution . Traditional banks will not long resist the onslaught of new competitors who , by understanding analysts Deutsche Bank, will appear in one form or another , such as Google Bank or Apple Bank.
“They will sooner or later and seized a large part of the retail market, the centuries-old tradition of burying the bills , checks, transfers , etc.” – written by the authors of the study from Deutsche Bank.
Further , they note that conventional banks simply ” missed ” the beginning of the development of modern payment systems. And suddenly saw that competitors were unexpected : Google, Apple, Amazon and Paypal, which ” … has created models for mobile payments … their customer base – no less than the banks … their customers loyal to these companies … … which is rare among the customers of typical bank ” …
It is difficult not to agree with the staff of Deutsche Bank, especially when you realize that the use of the same plastic card you pay not only making every transaction , but also an annual lump sum.
Paypal has already come to Russia , and gaining users – as long as the number of the most cautious and thrifty . But it is clear that the market for retail payments to banks to lose does not – it is too important for them. Analysts explain why it is important: after the crisis, many other banks’ profits were down , but “the commission of payments still give them a good opportunity to earn commission … the payments and maintenance of bank accounts of the bank’s income , which does not depend on the level of interest rates on loans and deposits … with advanced payment services banks attract additional customers on deposits – the customer comes to the bank , attracted by one service , and eventually buys the whole set …. deposits of the population account for 60 % of total liabilities of European banks ‘ …
Experts from Deutsche Bank lead such statistics . Over the last 5 years the average number of payments to “grow by 6.7 % per year in the world. The U.S. and Europe account for about 70 % of non-cash transactions, but in recent years, developing countries have shown good results. Until now, a significant part extends bank payment system. In 2011, 90.6 billion of 51% of the payments were made in the form of ordinary transfers , and another 41 % – with the help of credit cards and deposit … In the U.S. and Canada on the cards have 60.8 % and 72.7 % of transactions , respectively. In Europe, in 2010 – 40 % versus 28 % at the beginning of the decade. In the BRIC countries in the cards for 38 % of transactions compared to 14 % 10 years ago … ”
But while gaining speed and conventional banks nasty trend. Very fast growing non-cash payments through mobile and internet purses. According to Deutsche Bank non-banking organizations have already occupy about 6 % of the market of non-cash payments , and in 2013 their share will rise to 8%.
This is similar to the sentence of the traditional banking system.
Next, Deutsche Bank analysts wrote that the “internet of a platform for entertainment and communication gradually became a driver for the growth of the economy and business.” They note that from 2006 to 2011 in Germany was closed 6.6% units in the UK was closed 5525 units (down 19.8 %). And it is not the consequences of the crisis, but due to the fact that ” many of the standard procedures are now performed online … In 2030, 44 million Germans will use online banking to 27 million in 2010 . ”
At the same time the online stores show a higher sales growth than the regular stores . More Deutsche Bank notes that earlier professional bankers have understood and appreciated the change professional criminals : “The number of frauds involving bank cards in Europe decreased, and crime in the network – has been steadily growing.”
German bankers recognize that Internet companies develop and offer new services to customers much faster than conventional banks . They have a head start – to use their services cheaper than the services of a bank .
Deutsche Bank writes, ” … they integrate real, online and mobile payment channels … It can completely change the existing system of payments” …
Next, analysts see the possible scenarios of new mobile payments.
Offline payments , for example , immediate payment of purchase in the supermarket with a mobile device.
Payment online purchases with a mobile device account .
Payment of purchases made in the offline stores , with the help of online wallet.
Highlights the Deutsche Bank analysts virtual payment systems, which are the main enemy of the banks. For their special hatred – a system of Paypal, which is in Europe and the United States is a big part of automated systems purchases and payments. This system is growing rapidly , and already pushing mobile payments and payments at points of sale using NFC mobile chips .
Objects of the main fears of traditional bankers – well-known Internet giants . In their study of the subject of many bitter words , analysts note with regret that “… the market for mobile payments interested in Google, Amazon and mobile operators … They are developing technology … NFC … turns your phone into a payment card ” …
Next, Deutsche Bank notes ruefully : ” Trick Google, introduced in 2011 allows for contactless payments in offline stores … Google became partners Citi, MasterCard and others … However , mobile operators compete with Google, which prevents the development of their own similar solutions … Apple Iphone 5 left without a chip NFC, but the company has already appeared application Passbook, which allows you to store information on the number of tickets, coupons etc. You can not make … but this is the first stone in the future system of calculations Apple »…
Tragic music reaches a study in the part that is dedicated to companies engaged in plastic cards. They are also trying to enter the market of mobile payments . Deutsche Bank writes, ” They have a huge competitive advantage: they own infrastructure payments of accumulated customer base – both users and shops. They just need to expand an existing model to gain a significant part of the new market … MasterCard has already proposed a system of PayPass, when a regular card chip embedded NFC. Visa has already proposed a similar system Paywave ».
And the most frightening : these two companies are collaborating with Google.
According to Deutsche Bank research reading it seems that the authors regard the behavior of MasterCard and Visa almost as a betrayal of the old allies.
After this passage about the ” evil ” mobile phone operators have already read as dull prose . Deutsche Bank analysts note that ” … the traditional business model of mobile operators exhausted … so operators … soon rush to the market of mobile payments . To do this, they have all the possibilities – from the established system of financial relationships with clients to beautiful relationships with handset manufacturers … Vodafone , in collaboration with Visa is already in the second quarter of 2013 is about to launch the first electronic wallet ” …
Yet the authors write forecast scenarios that will surely have some ” … innovative startups … projects,” which is difficult to predict.
In a study of Deutsche Bank are four scenarios for mobile payments for 3-5 years.
First . Banks do not got involved ” in the mobile arms race ” (in the words ” Finmarket “). Perhaps it will be the right decision , as the new market ” will not take place ,” so they decided that it is more convenient to pay by credit card , and shops prefer the old technology. In the end, all turned out well for the banks .
The second scenario – if the banks have decided to take advantage of new opportunities and to offer mobile payment systems . They conclude alliances with companies who have set up a virtual payment system , change its structure , create new divisions . But consumers and stores are not claimed innovations . Then the banks can suffer losses .
The third scenario considering what would happen if the stores decide to go to the expense and buy a new terminal for payment . , And consumers pay on suddenly like a mobile phone. On the market there are many solutions in the mobile payment market is “… extremely convenient for the buyer … any operation of payment can be done in one click … Mobile payments are integrated throughout the operating system … appears user-friendly interface …” In this case , banks need to have time to ” catch the wave .” But in any case , cash payments finally come to naught … “… Banks are deprived of the income from the transfer of money. Now, this is done through a system of mobile payments , where the commission is much less than in the traditional clearing systems … Banks … deprived of the income from the cards … Maintain high commissions no longer possible … Gradually … mobile wallet is not necessarily tied to any bank … ”
The fourth scenario assumes that Internet companies outperformed traditional banks and seized the payments market . Following they attack and other activities of banks – deposits and lending. Appear Apple Bank, Google Bank and others. Traditional banks are losing their customers. Credit cards are still popular, but did not release their banks . And banks have issued cards reduce the commission – the competition is too high. More and more customers are using other services. “They are now in addition to a bank account there are a lot of different accounts that are integrated with the system of payments and services previously fully owned banks .”
Here’s the scenario implies that traditional banks eventually lose all loans and deposits . And die .
One question remains . Almost all the previous (and recent ) financial ( economic) crisis came as a result of large traditional banks. All measures to overcome the crisis n usually limited ( and are expensive ) to ensure that taxpayers are saving the banks at their own expense , gleefully watching as bank managers continue to eat well and move quickly to cancel the car from one of their house by the sea at another residence where – then in the mountains. Will the progress now , if he shall slay the traditional banks , not just filling a joyous light shower is not only furious haters of banks such as Warren Buffett is the same , but the millions of ordinary people, but also to the fact that crises will occur much less frequently ?