Oil at $ 50 for one barrel, the sharp rise in food prices, the default of Spain, the nationalization Sony and loss of confidence in U.S. bonds – Saxo Bank analysts forecast presented “shocks” in 2013. If at least one of the assumptions come true, the implications for the global economy would be catastrophic.
Saxo Bank presented an annual forecast, called “shocking predictions 2013” on the ten shocks that could bring down the world markets in the next year. Among the major frightening predictions bank – falling prices for WTI oil to $ 50 per barrel (now – about $ 90). “The U.S. WTI oil production is growing steadily, its reserves reach 30-year high, and export options – limited”, – explained in the review. Weaker than forecast global growth exacerbates this process, and suppliers, led by OPEC countries and Russia will respond with a long delay, specify bank experts.
In turn, gold, which in recent years a steady growth in the next year may fall to $ 1,200 an ounce.
Revised estimates of the rate of growth of the U.S. economy, the lack of physical demand for the metal in China and India has triggered a massive unwinding of the gold, reminiscent of bank analysts. In Saxo Bank warned that “as soon as is breached the psychologically important level of $ 1.5 per ounce, will stage mass liquidation of long positions”, and banks do not have time to save the situation.
The most pessimistic analysts’ expectations associated with Spain, whose total debt was 400% of GDP, with work only 17 million of the 47 million population. “In 2013, the Spanish government bonds will be downgraded to” junk “level, and the social tensions will push the country to the edge” – says the bank’s chief economist Steen Jakobsen.
We should not ignore the active desire of Catalonia, the most economically developed part of the country’s secession from Spain, experts remind the bank.
Japan’s economy, analysts said Saxo, threatening large-scale nationalization. The cumulative loss of $ 30 billion over the past 12 months ending September 30, 2012, for Sharp, Panasonic and Sony, combined, significantly “erode their credit,” and the Japanese government nationalizes the electronics industry, suggests another “shocking” prognosis.
But the soybean market in 2013 can expect to speculative growth – up to 50%. According to analysts of the bank, bad weather this year has already caused serious damage to the world’s agricultural production, and inventory levels in the U.S. soy continues to be in the “too close” to the minimum for the last nine years. “Prices in this case are vulnerable to any natural disasters around the world, from the USA and South America (the largest suppliers of the product) to China (the world’s largest importer and consumer of soybean). Will play a role and the increased demand for biofuels – soybean oil, “- experts predict the bank.
Among other startling predictions – the fall of the German index DAX at the third, the sharp appreciation of the yen against the dollar and the doubling of yields on 30-year U.S. bonds. Other currencies can be expected shocks – Switzerland can to de-link the franc to the euro, and Hong Kong, by contrast, will tie your dollar to the yuan.
This is an unofficial forecast, says the review of the bank, but for investors such warnings are relevant “because of the disastrous consequences that await us, if at least one of them will come true in the new year,” the bank’s experts explain. “It is better to prepare for the worst, even though most of the predictions seem very controversial” – agrees Nicholas Podlevskikh from “Zerich capital management.”
“Thus, the ratio of supply and demand, oil prices simply can not fall below $ 70 a barrel, China and India support the demand. Lower prices may drive only a collapse of the world economy, even more severe than in 2008 – says Podlevskikh. – But the jump in prices for soybeans in particular, and food in general seems more than probable. ”
Of “shocking”, but not the bank’s forecasts come true this year – the election of U.S. President obscure politician, Apple shareholders loss of $ 150 billion, bankruptcy fifty European banks, stock exchanges fall to 25% and the rise in wheat prices doubled.
Posted by Roman Mikhaelov